The $244 trillion annual total global cost of disease (see cost of war for comparison) encompasses direct healthcare costs, indirect economic losses, and the $100k valuation of a Year of Life Lost (YLL) and a $100k valuation Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALYs).
The value assigned to a Year of Life Lost (YLL) and a Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) can vary significantly depending on the context, purpose of the valuation, and the economic framework applied. These values are used in health economics to inform public health policy, prioritize healthcare interventions, and allocate resources efficiently. The methodology and the specific value can differ by country, healthcare system, and the economic conditions of the area under consideration.
The value of a YLL typically reflects the economic loss associated with premature mortality. This can be based on potential future earnings lost due to early death or the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying prematurely. The approach can vary:
The value of a DALY attempts to quantify the burden of both morbidity and mortality. It integrates the value of life years lost due to premature death and the value of life years lived with disability. Valuing a DALY can follow similar principles to valuing a YLL but also considers the costs and quality of life associated with living with disabilities and diseases. Like YLL, the valuation methods can include:
While specific monetary values can vary widely, a common approach in international health policy analysis is to value a DALY at 1 to 3 times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of a country. This approach provides a benchmark that adjusts for the economic conditions of the country. For instance, in a country with a GDP per capita of $50,000, a DALY might be valued between $50,000 and $150,000.
To monetize YLL, we adopt a conservative value that reflects the economic loss due to premature mortality. Assuming an average income approach or a statistical value of life approach, we might assign a figure like $100,000 per YLL. If we base our calculation on the WHO's reported 63 million excess deaths annually:
For DALYs, which combine YLL with Years Lived with Disability (YLD), we use a similar valuation approach. Assigning a value to each DALY reflects the cost of both premature death and living with disability. Assuming $100,000 per DALY as a conservative estimate:
For YLL, assuming an average of 10 years lost per death, and for DALYs, directly applying the $100,000 valuation:
These calculations provide us with a monetary estimate of the total global burden of disease, incorporating both health outcomes and direct plus indirect economic losses.
The calculations incorporating economic valuations for Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) yield the following insights into the global disease burden:
This leads to a Total Annual Economic Impact of the global disease burden of approximately $244.2 trillion. This total encompasses: