The core objection to the 1% Treaty is the classic collective action problem: "Why should we cut our military spending if China/Russia/Iran won't comply?" Without credible mechanisms to ensure simultaneous compliance, no rational country will unilaterally weaken itself.
Mechanism: The treaty only activates when a critical mass of nations representing >70% of global military spending have ratified.
Details:
Game Theory: Creates powerful incentive for major powers to coordinate rather than be excluded from a $19B+ annual health funding mechanism controlled by their competitors.
Mechanism: Link treaty compliance to existing trade agreements and create new conditional trade benefits.
Trade Integration:
New Economic Incentives:
Mechanism: Make treaty violation costly through sovereign debt and currency markets.
Sovereign Debt Pressure:
Currency Market Pressure:
Mechanism: Escalating consequences for non-compliance rather than binary enforcement.
Warning Phase (0-6 months after violation):
Economic Phase (6-18 months):
Isolation Phase (18+ months):
Mechanism: Make compliance so beneficial that violation becomes economically irrational.
Health Research Advantages:
Economic Development Benefits:
International Status Enhancement:
Participants: US, EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea
Coverage: ~55% of global military spending
Strategy: Prove the model works with aligned democracies first
Targets: India, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Israel
Strategy: Economic pressure + FOMO (fear of missing out) on health benefits
Leverage: Trade relationships and technology access
Targets: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea
Strategy: Isolation + internal pressure from health crises
Reality Check: May never fully comply, but 70%+ compliance still achieves goals
Economic Leverage: $500B+ annual trade with compliant countries
Internal Pressure: Aging population + COVID trauma creates domestic health pressure
Face-Saving: Allow China to lead "alternative" health initiatives that still reduce military spending
Economic Reality: Already economically isolated; limited impact on global total
Regional Pressure: EU compliance affects Russian energy exports and technology access
Demographic Pressure: Population decline makes health research critical
Economic Insignificance: Countries <1% global military spending don't affect the math
Bilateral Pressure: Larger neighbors can enforce compliance through existing relationships
Aid Conditionality: Link development aid to treaty compliance
The free rider problem is solvable through coordinated economic pressure that makes compliance more profitable than defection. By stacking trade benefits, financial market advantages, and health research access, we create a system where violating the treaty costs more than the 1% military budget reduction.
The key insight: We're not asking countries to be altruistic. We're making compliance the economically rational choice through overwhelming positive and negative incentives.
Global military spending concentration
"The top 15 countries with the highest military spending account for approximately 81% of total global military expenditure."
— SIPRI, 2024, Military Expenditure Database
US-EU combined military spending
"Combined military spending of US ($916B) and EU ($279B) represents approximately 44% of global total."
— SIPRI, 2024, World Military Expenditure
Trade agreement economic impact
"USMCA supports approximately $1.7 trillion in trade annually between the three countries."
— Office of the US Trade Representative, 2023, USMCA Benefits
Our Approach: Incentives Over Punishment
Instead of punitive measures, we focus on overwhelming positive incentives:
Consequentialist Reality: The alternative to this coordinated reallocation is continued escalation of nuclear arsenals (already enough for 13-130 extinction events[^nuclear]) and AI arms race leading to potential Skynet scenarios. Partial compliance still reduces global destructive capacity while funding cures—better than the status quo of waste and existential risk.
Bottom Line: Free-riding isn't viable when compliance pays better, and the stakes are human survival. For detailed mechanisms, see Free Rider Solution.